Weekly Market Commentary - DV Chain - April 2, 2024

April 2, 2024

💡 Welcome back to DV Chain's Weekly Market Commentary! In this edition, we'll be discussing last week's ETF flows, supply/emissions and why they matter in this market, as well as additional upcoming catalysts / trade ideas. Let's dive right in ⬇

Market Recap

  • ETF Flows flipped positive again following a negative week

                                                            (Sounce: Farside Investors)

  • Fidelity files S-1 form for Spot ETH ETF with staking included
  • Memecoin activity continued to be strong this week with WIF making ATHs
  • Degenchain L3 on Base activity ramped up this week

  • We’re starting to see supply/emissions matter more in this market
    • April shaping up to be one of the largest airdrop months this cycle (more details below)
    • Emissions/unlocks accelerating in many high FDV projects (more details below)
    • We’re expecting the next phase of the cycle to be characterized by dilution and dispersion

Upcoming Catalysts / Trade Ideas

  • BTC Halvening, 4/20
  • Ethena announces $ENA, 4/2
    • Trading $0.65 on AEVO premarket, implying ~500mm notional of tokens airdropped and ~10B FDV
  • APTOS Conference, 4/2
    • there’s been talks of a big tradfi institution partnering with aptos
  • SUI Conference, 4/10
    • SUI has been trading well ahead of their conference
    • SUI has unlocks coming up this May/June, one of the largest cliff unlocks this year
  • STX Nakamoto Upgrade, 4/15
    • “first SEC-compliant blockchain”
    • we think it’s worth being early users/testers of the chain post upgrade, as there’s tremendous interest in defi on Bitcoin and Bitcoin L2s, as shown by Merlin chain’s 3Bn TVL amassed shortly after launch
    • the limiting factor at the moment is UI/UX, stacks (pre upgrade) and Ordinal ecosystem leaving a lot to be desired
  • STRK Unlock, 4/16
    • 64m tokens unlock, and will continue monthly thereafter
    • We think emissions in high FDV products will be very impactful in this market
  • Doge Day, 4/20
  • $PARCL announced 7-8% supply airdropped this month
    • AEVO pre market futures implies 1.8B FDV
  • Eigen Launch, widely expected to be this month
  • $SYN currently trades at $240m fully diluted
    • we think it can be re-rated heading into Wormhole (W) and LayerZero TGE
    • Wormhole currently trades 16Bn fdv implied by Aevo futures
    • LayerZero TGE rumored to be in June


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