Weekly Market Commentary — DV Chain — Feb 5, 2024

February 5, 2024

Market Recap

● Celsius Distributions began on Thursday 2/1 but only a small number of creditors received claim codes so far

o Claim codes will continue to roll out this week as long as the first wave goes smoothly

o International creditors will be able to claim their BTC & ETH via Coinbase

o US Creditors will be able to claim their BTC & ETH via PayPal and Venmo

o Worth noting that PayPal and Venmo only support trading of: BTC, ETH, LTC BCH, and PYUSD

● Powell tempered March rate cut expectations pressuring stocks down mid week but strong tech earnings sent equity indices back to ATHs to end the week

● Oracle tokens seemed to be the big winners this week as $LINK, $PYTH, and $API3 all outperformed

● ETF Flows:

● GBTC outflows tapered off this past week but the FUD surrounding that may pick up again this coming week as Genesis filed a motion asking a judge to approve the sale of ~$1.4 billion in GBTC

Upcoming Catalysts / Trade Ideas

● DYM Mainnet Launch 2/6/24

o Airdrop, exchange listing and mainnet launch

o Trading just under $4 on Aevo implying ~4B FDV on launch

o should be dilutive to recent large cap airdrops such as $MANTA, $JUP, $ALT

● Celsius Distribution (continued)

o About $3B in BTC and ETH will be distributed back to users via Coinbase, Paypal, Venmo

o We assume some creditors will convert their BTC and ETH distributions back into the altcoins that were force sold by Celsius last summer:

o We think LTC and BCH should trade well vs BTC and ETH given that claims processor Paypal/Venmo only offer those 2 tokens aside from BTC and ETH

o Matic/ETH may also benefit from creditor rotations as well as having an upcoming token migration from $MATIC to $POL which comes with new tokenomics, as well as zk narrative with the launch of $STRK

▪ Matic is also arguably undervalued at <$8B FDV vs several new and less battle tested projects in $ALT, $MANTA, $JUP valued $3–6B fully diluted

● Eigenlayer opens up deposit caps again this week for those who want to deposit staked ETH and earn some airdrop points

● APT unlock 2/12

o ~$220m tokens unlock in a week, APT will likely trade heavy into the unlock

o The open interest and funding rate data suggest that it isn’t heavily pre hedged or shorted at the moment


● $MANTA came off the highs significantly this week as new large cap token listings drew attention and flows away from it

o We think it likely continues to trade poorly with linear unlocks and little incentive to keep users on the chain post airdrop once withdrawals open up 3/26 and other highly anticipated new chains such as Blast launch


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