Welcome back to DV Chain's Weekly Market Commentary! In this edition, we'll discuss last week's market activity including rate decisions, Trump's impact, and explore upcoming market catalysts. Let's dive in:
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Market Recap

• FOMC is this Wednesday
  • The Fed is widely expected to leave rates unchanged
  • The ECB cut rates by 25 bps last week
    
    
• NVDA briefly flipped AAPL at 3T market cap
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• GME went on a large run to start the week and sold off as roaring kitty’s highly anticipated livestream disappointed
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• First human case of H4N2 bird flu in Mexican 59 year old who died
  • As this new virus spreads, it presents a potential black swan to pay attention to, as we saw how much covid affected markets and society
    
    
• Last Friday as the US trading session was nearing the close, crypto markets saw a moderate deleveraging event
  • a lot of longs positioned for the ETH ETF got liquidated and funding rates got reset to a healthier level
  • Alts sold off heavily across the board while BTC sold off about 5% peak to trough
    
    
• The weekend trading session had very low volumes following a volatile end of week move
  
  
• Trump vowed to be the “Crypto President” and promised to halt the anti-crypto policies of US President Joe Biden and SEC chair Gary Gensler within an hour of taking office if he is re-elected
  • Crypto has increasingly become a political issue, which is fundamentally a really bullish development for the space
  • It’s worth thinking about the implications of a turnaround in U.S Policy and the sectors that have the most to benefit
  • An example would be DeFi, a sector that can rerate higher and unlock value to tokenholders if the regulatory environment eases
    
    
• CME ETH open interest remains relatively low, despite the ETF approval last month

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Upcoming Catalysts / Trade Ideas

• $ETH
  • With the ETH ETF approved, we think it will continue higher on both an absolute and relative basis
  • CME positioning is still off of yearly highs, and offshore derivs had a deleveraging event on Friday
    
    
• $LDO
  • LDO fundamentally is a very strong project, clipping almost $200m in fees on an annualized basis to it’s treasury
  • It has maintained majority of market share in the LST/LRT space, despite higher temporary yields in new competitor’s liquidity bootstrapping farms
  • From an institutional standpoint, it is much stronger than competitors in terms of safety and network effects. The Lido Dao’s roadmap prioritizes institutional adoption, which we think is an astute plan, given the recent interest in crypto from Wall Street
  • The ongoing developments in US Policy stance is a potential spark for the revival of DeFi tokens
    
    
• $ASI Launch, 6/13
  • Originally set for 5/24, the merger was delayed and now slated for 6/13
  • $FET, $AGIX, and $OCEAN merge and get converted to $ASI
  • As the 3 tokens all convert to $ASI, there is an arbitrage opportunity since $FET trades at a premium to $AGIX and $OCEAN

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