Welcome back to DV Chain's Weekly Market Commentary! In this edition, we review a strong September for risk assets, driven by a dovish Fed rate cut, China’s stimulus package, and renewed momentum in altcoins. Crypto markets are heating up, with ETF flows increasing and supply overhangs possibly fading. We also explore key developments such as Eigenlayer's listing, Kamala Harris voicing crypto support, and upcoming catalysts like FTX distributions and Uniswap v4. Dive in for insights on the latest market trends and potential trade ideas:

Market Recap

• September was a good month for risk assets, crypto included, and there’s reason to believe that the current crypto market regime has shifted from the recent developments:
  • Fed cut 50 bps with dovish projections
  • China stimulus package, boosting Chinese equities to their best week since 2008
  • Altcoins led this past week, with most tokens seeing double digit percent increases off the lows, and they are once again responding to headlines and positive news
  • Notable uptick in last week’s ETF flows
  • Supply overhangs are largely behind us
  • FTX returning cash in Q4
  • Eigenlayer likely kicks off a TGE heavy Q4 (Hyperliquid, Karak, Grass, Polymarket, Symbiotic)
  • On chain activity heating up
  • Kamala now also supports crypto, dampening the downside of the election
  • BTC ETFs approved for options, ETH ETFs will likely follow suit

• SEC delays decision to list options on ETHA to 11/10
  
  
• Bank of New York will not be held to SEC accounting practices for client crypto custody
  
  
• China's former minister of finance, Zhu Guangyao, has called on Beijing to pay more attention to the crypto markets in a speech at a summit hosted by Tsinghua University.
  • Crypto, he said at the time, is "the steel industry of 100 years ago. You're just in your infancy. One day, it probably will overtake gold. There's never been anything like it."
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• Visa Working On Tokenized Asset Platform For Banks, Seeks To Launch Initial Pilot In 2025 On Ethereum
  
  
• Paypal enables businesses to buy, sell, and hold crypto
  
  
• CZ was released from prison
  
  
• Robinhood explores launching on stablecoin
  
  
• VP Debate 10/1
  
  
• Nonfarm this friday 10/4
  
  
• Eigen became tradable yesterday and got listed on Binance
  • one of the largest and most anticipated airdrops this cycle - historically airdrops have provided wealth effects that drive on chain activity
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Upcoming Catalysts / Trade Ideas
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• Tia Unlocks, 10/30
  • $1B worth of tokens to be unlocked
    
    
• Eigenlayer, 9/30
  • wealth effect for ETH ecosystem
    
    
• FTX creditor distributions in Q4
  
  
• Uniswap v4 launch, Q4
  
  
• Sonic Mainnet, December
  
  
• ETHBTC
  • Notably strong after FOMC, despite Saylor’s purchases in BTC
  • As we head towards ZIRP, the chase for yield benefits ETH as DeFi yields become much more attractive
  • Potentially breaking out of a 2 year slump
  • On chain activity heating up
  • ETF flows picking up
  • The ETH ETF has been dismissed as a failure and if flows continue at last week’s pace, there’s a lot of room for future flows to be priced
  • ETH has much more narrative potential than BTC, ie ‘Tokenization of everything’ is quietly happening, and especially since some institutions are said to be exempt from SAB121
  • A Trump victory likely re-rates alts as an investable sector, as tokens will likely be able to accrue value, which seems near impossible under the current SEC

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